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The damage caused by Hurricane Harvey will cost tens of billions of dollars and take years to overcome, experts said.
Harvey descended on the southeastern Texas coastline, overwhelming Houston, a metropolis of 4.5 million people, and leaving an unprecedented swath of devastation. Ten people were reported dead with the death toll expected to rise.
The damage comes at a time when the area’s economy, driven by the shipping, chemical and oil sectors, is booming.
With a gross state product of $1.7 trillion annually, Texas has the second largest economy in United States. If it were its own country, it would place 10th – ahead of South Korea and Canada.
Houston and the Gulf Coast region of Texas accounted for 2.9% of the entire U.S. gross domestic product in 2015.
The Gulf Coast has the third most valuable insured coastal property vulnerable to hurricanes in the country behind New York and Florida.
“If you’re talking about lost wages, property damage and rebuilding costs, it’s going to be really bad,” said Michael Carroll, an economist with the University of North Texas.
“I don’t think (Texas) has had something like this in a metro area. It’s such a dense area. I don’t think anyone has come close to this before.”
The Port of Houston was closed for the third day, and will be closed Tuesday. A Wednesday shutdown is likely. The major refineries also remained closed.
As a result, Forbes estimated that the storm already removed millions of barrels of oil from the U.S. energy market.
Half of the country’s petroleum exports come from Texas, and gas prices will almost certainly rise.
“If they shut down all of the refineries, that would affect more than 80,000 people in that sector, and they haven’t been operating because of the storm,” Carroll said.
Overall, the region contributes roughly $600 billion in goods and services a year, and that number is going to suffer.
Since only about 20% of people have their own flood insurance, the federal government will end up shelling out billions through its National Flood Insurance Program.
An analysis by the firm CoreLogic predicted the insured property losses at between $1 billion and $2 billion.
Another analysis firm, ALR, put the number at between $1.2 and $2.3 billion.
Loretta Worters of the Insurance Information Institute said it was too early to make an estimate, but added the Harvey costs will compare to previous major storm damage.
Hurricane Katrina, which primarily battered the New Orleans area in 2015, cost $49 billion in insured losses. Hurricane Ike, which struck Texas in 2008, cost $14 billion. Hurricane Rita hit Texas and Louisiana in 2005 and caused $8 billion in damage.
The 2001 World Trade Center attacks cost $24 billion, while Superstorm Sandy of 2012 cost $8.4 billion.
The Galveston, Tex., hurricane of 1900 cost $41 billion in 2017 dollars, Worters said.
Bernard Weinstein, an economist at the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University estimated the overall property damage from Harvey would cost roughly $60 billion.
Weinstein studied the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and said he believes that the money that will pour into the region for repair, cleanup, and support from both public and private sources will actually be somewhat higher than the cost.
In other words, places stricken by disaster often enjoy a bump in their economies after the initial shock has subsided and the rebuilding has begun.
“Economies are very resilient,” he said. “While this is probably the worst flood Houston has ever seen, you have to look at it against the backdrop of a huge state economy.”