CHICAGO — Bill de Blasio, beware: America’s most dynamic and driven big-city mayor is not an especially happy camper these days.
As de Blasio prepares to take over New York City, he should inspect Rahm Emanuel‘s eventful 21/2 years running the third-largest city — and have no illusions about the brevity of honeymoons and the perils ahead.
There are few elected officials who are brainier, more connected, harder working or more pragmatic and somberly decisive as Emanuel, who’s operated far longer in the major leagues of politics and government than de Blasio. He was an adroit fundraiser-operative-aide to two Presidents (Bill Clinton, Barack Obama) and, as a congressman, micromanaged the party’s recapture of the House of Representatives in 2006 as leader of its campaign operation.
He inherited a city transformed over 22 years by his predecessor, Richard M. Daley, son of the iconic urban boss, Richard J. Daley. Mayor Bloomberg says the son was a mayor “out of Central Casting,” a forward-thinker who didn’t pander.
A Rust Belt essence morphed into a globally oriented reality based on brains not brawn. By some metrics, it’s the fifth-most economically important city, following New York, London, Tokyo and Singapore.
Yet Emanuel also inherited disastrous budget and pension realities, a bedeviling homicide rate, a segregated city with shameful poverty, eroding infrastructure and underperforming schools.
And with 15 months to go before the next election, his approval ratings are way down and his once-commanding presence is diminished.
There is much for de Blasio to mull about a maniacally focused man, tagged “Rahmbo” during his myth-laden West Wing days, as he too faces what may be the Sisyphean task of running a major city in an age of austerity and citizen frustration.
“Show some balls. “You can’t be chickens—,” says Mike Quigley, a moderate Democrat who succeeded Emanuel as a Chicago congressman. “You can’t be afraid to lose your job doing what you think is right. You have to be willing to be a one-term mayor.”
Emanuel took on the Democratic temple of public-sector pensions, which threatened to cripple the city. He extended a pathetically short school day and shut schools. He goaded the teachers union into a strike, getting only modest concessions but signalling that profligate Daley-era accommodations with public employees are over now.
He knows the days of workers not contributing to their health insurance are over and has made some inroads, including instituting money-saving wellness programs.
He confronted the politically sacrosanct, wasteful system of separate garbage collection in Chicago’s 50 wards, forcing a switch to a grid system.
“Politically, that was an astounding achievement,” says Mike Flannery, longtime local TV reporter-analyst on politics.
Follow the money. Emanuel mastered the budget and had no illusions by the time he arrived about the enormity of problems left by Daley, even if he had to restrain himself from overtly blaming a political mentor.
De Blasio must dive into the numbers and, especially, fully understand retiree pension and health-care costs. They could devastate the city. New York’s are better funded than Chicago’s but any city’s contributions are vulnerable to being deferred to meet other needs.
De Blasio can’t take a thing for granted. He can’t assume that the past is prologue with New York’s current low crime rate. For sure, Chicago is different, with far higher concentrations of poverty, a judiciary that’s soft on gun violations and a persistently high homicide rate. But Emanuel was caught flat-footed by early crime hikes and only belatedly appeared to fully understand the issue’s complexity. It’s not just about cops. A mayor needs a real strategy, involving a variety of institutions, and Emanuel is getting there.
Be rigorous in evaluating talent. De Blasio hasn’t done much hiring and shouldn’t be beguiled by out-of-town hires. With a golden Rolodex and his own celebrity status, Emanuel lured great talent but made mistakes; notably with both the Rochester, N.Y. education chief he hired to run the schools and a disastrous chief education officer from Denver. One lasted 17 months, the other less than a year.
He botched his public housing hire from North Carolina and a city comptroller from Ohio (who quit three weeks before getting indicted back home for alleged corruption). An inventive transportation chief from Washington, D.C. quietly exited recently amid clear frustrations.
Mike Bloomberg was a magnet for talent, and the aura of his personal wealth helped attract some of the nation’s best. De Blasio can’t rely on that, which places greater pressure on getting things right.
He’ll need to make allies in Albany. Gov. Andrew Cuomo and de Blasio have worked very closely together over the years, but when it comes to hashing out their respective agendas, they won’t be a coosome twosome. Neither are Emanuel and Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn, also a Democrat. Still, Emanuel has worked the Illinois legislature and Quinn hard and made gains (notably on education reform).
De Blasio’s fate is, in so many ways, tied to his state’s top official. Just ask Emanuel.
Work the nation’s capital. De Blasio was in Washington Friday and, if he’s going to learn from Emanuel, should go back routinely. Emanuel is a master of the federal bureaucracy, as underscored by Forrest Claypool, the Chicago Transit Authority boss: He investigates potential funding sources, works agencies hard without fanfare and finds millions of dollars for mass transit at a time the Washington spigot is closing.
This is harder than one thinks, and de Blasio doesn’t have Emanuel’s past relationships as Obama’s chief of staff to exploit. Bill: Get used to riding the Acela Express down to D.C. Don’t worry, there’s plenty of legroom.
Sweat the boring stuff. Water mains, rail switches, potholes: Emanuel understands the link between infrastructure and future economic development. He’s poured billions into those unsexy areas, propelled by an acute sense of how it’s all linked to long-term prosperity.
On the campaign trail, de Blasio has been a champion of lifting up the poor. But he can’t forget the bread and butter concerns of most voters: crime, garbage collection, plowing the snow, reliable buses and subways and sewers that work.
Develop an economic vision. Emanuel knows he must take his city to a new level of economic development. It’s why he’s luring high-tech start-ups and personally pitching Chicago to computer engineering students at the University of Illinois, who traditionally split for Silicon Valley. He’s reinvigorated the city’s long-term development apparatus and personally lured conventions and helped to boost tourism. He’s swimming upstream, given a sluggish Midwest economy, but largely doing what he can, including poaching firms from elsewhere.
De Blasio would be smart to ally, as has Emanuel, with a think tank like the Brookings Institution. It’s done fine analyses of metro areas worldwide and why some, like Munich, Barcelona, Turin and Seoul, have been revived and are flourishing.
Schools, obviously, are critical here. Emanuel buys into school choice, teacher evaluations and closing schools. He’s partnered with Microsoft, Intel and others to change curricula at certain schools.
Many of de Blasio’s allies think corporations have grown too close to public school reform. Which path will he choose?
Resist the impulse to overpromise. Emanuel is very conscious of image and adept at manipulating media. He cranks out unceasing daily announcements and lets no news cycle go untouched.
But he’s also gone beyond acceptable political hyperbole, overpromising on jobs, cost savings and other gambits. Governing magazine just noted that he’s got “little to show” for a much ballyhooed 2012 unveiling with Bill Clinton of a Chicago Infrastructure Trust to exploit the private sector to boost transit, highways, bridges and sewers.
It may prove a terrific idea. But people aren’t stupid. De Blasio must be mindful of his personal credibility. Big wins are seductive, but in the end, slow and steady wins.
Have partners, not merely allies. The choice is not to be either the handmaiden or tormentor of unions. Emanuel has alienated public employees via unabashed, at times prickly, commitment to huge change in their economics and workplaces. It’s all combustible, especially as he seeks desperately needed pension reforms.
De Blasio is in theory better positioned to convince unions of the need for change. But if he’s steamrolled, the short-term benefits will morph into long-term liabilities.
Be a happy warrior. These are very difficult times. Emanuel’s many strengths don’t include reflexive warmth. De Blasio should try to present an appealing personal facade during tough times. You’ve got to let people know you care.
A sunny disposition and relentless work ethic also help manage those reporting to you. Emanuel works like a dog and, as a result, people work like a dog for him. But he doesn’t have a gentle touch, and at this point in his term, staffers are burning out.
De Blasio had best prepare for how “the natural drag of governing and government will take over,” as former Emanuel consultant Tom Bowen puts it.
Finally, an astute local politician and Emanuel ally reminds us of a lesson from an unlikely source of political wisdom: “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.”
As one character says, “Always remember who the real enemy is.”
The real enemy for Emanuel isn’t the ideologue who runs the teachers union or her members, though he’s left that impression.
The real enemy for de Blasio is not corporate moguls, though he’s led many to believe just that.
Go after the true adversaries, said this politician.
They include the local economy, stagnating wages, families that are falling apart, kids not getting educated and competition from economic centers like London, Singapore and Tokyo.
In a world of electronic trading, Wall Street and the Chicago’s hallowed financial exchanges aren’t invulnerable.
The world can pass by quicker than anybody might imagine. De Blasio’s challenge is to grab hold of history, not let it run over him.
jwarren@nydailynews.com
