In one cable news cycle, Barack Obama is an-all-but irrelevant lame duck who’s squandered his time in office. In the next, he’s a historically significant President racking up big wins.
Harrumphing aside, what’s the deal?
With the race to replace him fully underway and Obama on a roll right now — able to claim some credit in for victories in passing an Asian trade bill and Supreme Court rulings on Obamacare and gay marriage, a notable speech on race in Charleston, revived relations with Cuba and an improved economy — I asked a few wise Washington watchers to take a step back and assess the state of his presidency.
“Obama’s recent run, it seems to me, is a rebuke to the notion that we journalists fall into too easily — that presidents have become ‘lame ducks’ or are reduced to ‘irrelevance,'” says John Harris, a biographer of Bill Clinton’s White House years (“The Survivor”) and co-founder of pacesetting Politico.com.
“Clinton showed, to some extent Bush showed, and now Obama is showing anew that the presidency is singular in American politics in its ability to shape perceptions, capitalize on opportunities and bounce back from setbacks. Presidents hold that power as long as they’ve got the keys to the White House, no matter whether it is year one or year eight,” Harris wrote me.
For sure, Obamacare, his signature accomplishment, came early on, when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress.
Now, says George Edwards III, a presidential scholar at Texas A&M, “Barack Obama is a President of consequence — even if he cannot persuade others to follow his lead.
“Although he can neither mobilize the public nor marshal congressional majorities for policies opposed by Republicans, he has had substantial impact on health care, environmental protection, immigration, financial regulation, economic stimulus, education, and taxes, (and) notable impact in international trade and foreign policy.”
How many of those accomplishments are judged remains to be seen. The Asian trade bill saw Republicans doing what they really wanted to do all along. And on gay marriage, Obama was a bit late to the issue. But better late than never.
His immigration policy, put through after Congress’ efforts for a comprehensive reform collapsed, remains up in the air, with both court decisions and a new President who could reverse course looming. And the Supreme Court’s ruling against him on new environmental regulations made clear the constraints on his executive powers.
Legislatively, recent successes may mean little, suggests Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist. “The contemporary political context, complete with polarization at all levels, doesn’t lend itself to streaks for presidents the way it does for baseball hitters.”
But Obama has racked up plenty of hits over his time in office he can remind the public of to help to shape short- and medium-term perceptions of his presidency. The longer view will be a combination of those perceptions, conclusions about the well-being of the nation under his watch and comparisons with presidents who faced similar odds — math that “suggests the President’s legacy efforts over the next year will be important” to how he is remembered, says Rottinghaus.
Douglas Brinkley, a prominent historian at Rice University, says, “President Obama has racked up a lot of legacy trophies in recent days. The big one is having Obamacare become part of the fabric of America” with the Supreme Court’s decision.
“Right now it looks like Obama will be honored as an above-average President. If the economy holds up, however, and historians can say his policies got us out of the Great Recession, than he will move up the ladder to near-great.”
Daniel Drezner, an international affairs expert at Tufts University, wrote in the Washington Post about the political constraints Obama faces domestically, along with dicey challenges overseas — and the importance for maintaining his accomplishments of having one-time rival Hillary Clinton succeed him.
Yes, Obama had a great week, Drezner wrote, but “it does not mean that his presidency is reborn.”
Richard Parker, a policy expert at Harvard’s Kennedy School, told me that Obama’s recent wins moved him from a B-plus to an A-minus, putting him with six or seven presidents just a step below the greats. His math: Being the first black President, getting America out of an economic collapse, pulling back from two wars we were losing, extending medical care to millions and moving the nation forward on race and identity issues.
That’s not bad at all if it holds. But as the dim TV talkers sometimes say, only time will tell.
jwarren@nydailynews.com
